Take #625 Valkyries vs Mercury Over

The WNBA returns from the All-Star break with an intriguing matchup as the Golden State Valkyries visit the Phoenix Mercury. Both teams exceeded expectations in the first half, and each enters the second half with momentum.

The Valkyries (19-8) have been one of the league’s biggest surprises, fueled by a dominant defense, a nine-game winning streak earlier this season, and the outstanding play of Gabby Williams. While their defense has carried them, they’ve also shown the ability to push the pace when opportunities arise.

Phoenix closed the first half with back-to-back victories and appears to be finding its rhythm offensively. Alyssa Thomas heads into the break fresh off a spectacular triple-double, recording 19 points, 15 assists, and 11 rebounds against the Sparks. When Thomas is controlling the tempo, the Mercury become one of the league’s more efficient offensive teams.

Both teams should come out with fresh legs after the break, and we expect an uptick in pace. Phoenix has been playing with more confidence offensively, while Golden State has enough scoring options to capitalize in transition. Our model projects more possessions than the betting market is accounting for, making the total look a bit short.

With both teams capable of playing at a faster tempo and creating quality scoring opportunities, expect enough offense on both sides to push this game over the posted total.

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