Normally I’m reluctant to fade Indiana at home, but this is a clear exception. The Fever hosted Seattle last night in a high-intensity game and nearly dropped it. That kind of emotional, physical effort on short rest usually leaves legs heavy the following night.
New York, by contrast, has had five full days off. Even though the Liberty are dealing with injuries and have dropped three straight, the extended rest gives them a major advantage in freshness and recovery. I was already on them in the postponed Dallas game because I expected them to start climbing out of the slump — that thesis still holds here.
The market is cooperating as well. We’re seeing solid betting support on the Liberty with line movement in our direction. When a rested road team is getting respect from the sharp money against a tired home side, that’s a spot worth taking.
Play: New York Liberty -2.5 (-110)

Let’s cash some tickets!