Oddsmakers are sometimes at odds with The Associated Press Top 25 College Football Poll—such is the case in this CFB Week 4 betting recap.
When there is a significant discrepancy, like in Week 3, it typically pays to be on the side of the sportsbooks.
Top 25: Hoosiers (19) Throttle Illini (9)
The Illinois-Indiana Top 25 matchup on Saturday was a prime example. The Fighting Illini entered the game ranked ninth in the nation while the Hoosiers were ranked 19th. But Indiana closed as a 7-point home favorite over Illinois, which, based on the rankings, was supposedly the better team, after the line opened at 4.
The bookmakers beat the pollsters in blowout fashion as Indiana dominated Illinois in a 63-10 win. It was the most points ever scored by a Big Ten team against an AP top-10 opponent.
Overall Top 25 Solid Straight Up
Top 25 favorites went 15-1 straight up on Saturday and 10-6 against the spread, while totals went 11-5 to the over.
The oddsmakers had it wrong in the only outright Top 25 upset in a Top 25 matchup between No. 16 Utah and No. 17 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders rolled to a 34-10 victory over the Utes as 3.5-point road underdogs to improve to 4-0 ATS.
The top five most-bet Top 25 teams at BetMGM entered the week on a 2-13 spread slide. But they went 3-2 in Week 4. Utah and Illinois were the losers, while Oklahoma, Miami, and Michigan all cashed tickets.
The No. 11 Sooners (-6.5) beat No. 22 Auburn 24-17 to cover the spread—barely. After the Tigers took a 17-16 lead with a go-ahead touchdown midway through the fourth quarter, Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, the Heisman Trophy favorite (7-1), scored on a 9-yard touchdown run to put the Sooners up 22-17 with 4:54 left.
Auburn Bettors Beat Bad
Auburn bettors were still covering after Oklahoma failed to convert a two-point conversion. But they suffered a bad beat when the Sooners scored a safety with 1:06 to go after sacking former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold in the end zone. The Tigers had a first down at their 23-yard line before back-to-back penalties (holding, false start) pushed them back to the eight. A sack of Arnold on third down drove them back to the four-yard line before the safety gave Sooner bettors a miracle cover.
As if losing on a late safety wasn’t bad enough for Auburn bettors, the SEC admitted hours after the game that Oklahoma’s first touchdown should not have counted. Sooners wide receiver Isaiah Satenga III headed to the sideline early in the second quarter, but stopped just before reaching the Sooners’ sideline and was wide open for a 24-yard touchdown catch. The SEC cited an NCAA football rule labeled “unfair tactics” that states, “No tactic associated with substitutes or the substitution process may be used to confuse opponents. This includes any hideout tactic.”
The Rest: Hilltoppers’ Miracle & More
Michigan (-1.5) beat Nebraska behind three long touchdown runs and seven sacks of Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola, who completed 30 of 41 passes for 308 yards and three touchdowns. Nebraska lost its 28th straight game against a Top-25 opponent.
The Hurricanes (-8.5) beat Florida 26-7, covering with touchdowns on back-to-back possessions in the final 4:08 while forcing the Gators to turn it over on downs on their final two possessions. Florida (1-3) is off to its worst start since 1986 under Billy Napier, who is 20-22 as Gators coach.
Every bad beat doubles as a miracle cover. Western Kentucky, an 8.5-point favorite over Nevada, delivered a miracle cover to its backers in a 31-16 victory over the Wolf Pack. The Hilltoppers took a 24-13 lead on a tough 8-yard touchdown run by La’Vell Wright on third-and-goal with 1:49 left to cover the spread for the first time in the game. But Nevada marched to the Western Kentucky 6-yard line in the final seconds and opted for a 22-yard field goal on fourth-and-goal to cut the margin to eight points with 29 seconds left and give Wolf Pack bettors an apparent cover. But it still wasn’t over.
Nevada attempted an onside kick, and the Hilltoppers’ Matthew Henry caught it in stride and scored on a 48-yard kickoff return with 23 seconds left to bail out Western Kentucky bettors. The miracle cover doubled as an epic bad beat for Wolf Pack backers.