One of the most intriguing regular-season awards to wager on is the 2025 Comeback Player of the Year. It’s not always about statistics, as storylines and narratives also play a significant role, despite voters not always admitting it. This year shouldn’t be much different.
While trends can always be broken, it’s worth noting that this award has gone to a quarterback in seven consecutive seasons and 13 times over the last 17 years. So, let’s examine the odds going into the 2025 NFL season.
The Favorites
With the best odds of winning the Comeback Player of the Year is Detroit Lions’ Aidan Hutchinson at +300 on ESPN Bet. Hutchinson was seemingly on his way to leading the NFL in sacks and was a viable candidate for Defensive Player of the Year before fracturing his tibia and fibula.
While he could very well return to form, it would take a lot for him to take home the hardware. Over the past 17 seasons, only one defensive player has taken home the award: Eric Berry in 2015 after overcoming a diagnosis of Hodgkin’s lymphoma. If you’re looking to bet on Hutchinson, there’s more value betting him to win Defensive Player of the Year or to lead the league in sacks.
Second on the odds board for the Comeback Player of the Year award is Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott at +325 on BetMGM. Prescott almost took this award home once before back in 2021, but was narrowly defeated by Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. When healthy, Prescott can put up elite passing numbers. However, at the current price of +325, there’s not much value.
Some people might be rushing to the betting counter, looking to take Christian McCaffrey. The San Francisco 49ers missed McCaffrey in a multitude of ways last season, as he’s the driving force behind that Kyle Shanahan offense. He has a decent price tag of +400, but a running back hasn’t won the award since Garrison Hearst won it in 2001.
There’s one small asterisk that should go with that statistic, as Adrian Peterson returned from a torn ACL to nearly break the single-season rushing record on his way to winning MVP. As a result, they gave the Comeback Player of the Year award to Peyton Manning, who finished second behind Peterson for MVP. Still, with McCaffrey’s injury history, it’s not impossible he gets hurt again.
Best of the Rest
Closely behind McCaffrey is Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence at +550 on ESPN Bet. Lawrence is returning from surgery on his left AC joint. The Jaguars are seemingly all in after hiring Liam Coen as the new head coach after serving as the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
They also made a significant splash when they traded up to draft Travis Hunter, despite Brian Thomas Jr. coming off a stellar rookie campaign. If the Jaguars want to return to the playoffs in what looks to be a relatively wide-open division, it starts with Lawrence.
Tua Tagovailoa’s full name at this point should be “Tua Tagovailoa if healthy,” because everything the Miami Dolphins want to do offensively starts and ends with his health. This season is likely a make-or-break year for Tagovailoa, as well as head coach Mike McDaniel. If it doesn’t work out, the Dolphins could be looking for a new head coach and quarterback come the offseason. While it wouldn’t be surprising to see him miss time once again, his price tag of +3500 on DraftKings might be too good to pass up.
The Verdict: Trevor Lawrence +550. While Lawrence doesn’t provide the most value on this list, his road is perhaps the easiest. He’ll play the Baker Mayfield role in what should be an electric Coen offense. Even with some first-year growing pains into the new system, Lawrence could help lead the Jags back to the playoffs.