The Offensive Player of the Year odds are always fun to consider. Last season, Saquon Barkley took home the honors after an electrifying season, helping the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl win in his first year in the city of brotherly love. But this is a new season. Does Barkley have what it takes to take home the hardware for a second consecutive season?
The Favorites
Barkley enters as the projected favorite for the award at +650, which translates to about a 13.3% probability. It would be difficult for Barkley to surpass what he did last season, but he doesn’t necessarily need to.
The last two winners of this award have been running backs, with San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey winning the award in 2023. There’s been a decent mix of different positions to win the prize, as it’s been a running back or wide receiver to earn the honors in each of the last six years. While there may not be much value in Barkley’s number, it’s difficult to label it a bad bet.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase and Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs are neck-and-neck on the Offensive Player of the Year odds board. Chase is +900 at BetMGM, while Gibbs can be found at +1000.
Chase posted incredible numbers last season, and they likely would’ve been enough to win the award in most seasons if it weren’t for Barkley’s impressive run. He notched 127 receptions for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns. As it stands, the Bengals appear to be in a similar position to last season and will likely throw the ball a ton. The Chase and Joe Burrow combo has been a lethal one since their days at LSU, and this could be the year Chase stands alone for the award.
As for Gibbs, he’ll have the opportunities, but he has a new offensive coordinator following the departure of Ben Johnson to Chicago. He’ll also see some of his carries go to backfield mate David Montgomery. While Montgomery likely won’t cut into Gibbs’ potential stats too much after he led the league with 16 touchdowns, it’s reasonable to be pessimistic about the Lions with a new playcaller.
Best of the Rest
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson will look to stake his claim for the award this season. He rushed for 1,456 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground last season, and added another 431 receiving yards and a touchdown. The Falcons look to be contenders for the NFC South, and that starts with Robinson. At +1600, he’s more than a viable pick for the award.
Don’t overlook Derrick Henry with the Baltimore Ravens. He won this award with the Titans back in 2020, and put up numbers similar to that campaign last season when he rushed for 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns. However, some believe this will be the season Henry takes a step back at age 31. There may be better on the board than Henry’s +1400 odds.
Perhaps the best odds on the board lie with Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb at +2000. Despite quarterback Dak Prescott playing just half the season, Lamb still managed to tally 1,194 yards and six touchdowns. In 2023, Lamb finished third for the award when he finished with 135 receptions for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. If they can get another full season of Prescott under center, it’s not unbelievable to think Lamb could approach these numbers again, even with the addition of George Pickens. Following the announcement that the Cowboys were trading Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers, it’s reasonable to believe that the Cowboys could become the NFC version of the Bengals, who will likely win games due to their offense, rather than their defense.