We had two players in contention over the weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and both hit our money list with Ludvig Åberg finishing T3 and Sahith Theegala coming in T6. It was almost a wire-to-wire winner for Daniel Berger, but it was Akshay Bhatia who overcame a late five-shot deficit and forced a playoff, which he won on the first hole of sudden death. It was his third PGA Tour victory, also winning in 2023 at the Barracuda Championship and in 2024 at the Valero Texas Open, both in a playoff as well.
The 2026 Players Championship
The PGA Tour remains in the Sunshine State this week for The 2026 Players Championship, taking place from The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.
The event has been played since 1974 and has been held at TPC Sawgrass since 1982, with the only year not played being the COVID year of 2020, after being cancelled after one round. It was moved from May to March in 2019, and the Stadium Course is par 72 at 7,352 yards, up 163 yards from 2021. While not considered a target course, it is a positional course, as precision is a priority with water in play on 12 holes, including all three finishing holes, and 92 bunkers are spread throughout, with both consistent ball-strikers and short-game specialists having advantages. Those final three holes have decided many tournaments.
Star-Studded Field
Rory McIlroy won The Players Championship last year in a three-hole Monday playoff over J.J. Spaun, following consecutive wins by Scottie Scheffler in 2023 and 2024, the first player ever to win in back-to-back years. McIlroy joined seven other players as two-time winners, and along with Scheffler, they will be looking to join Jack Nicklaus as the only three-time champions. The field is stacked as usual, with 48 of the top 50 players in the world competing, and since the move to March, all six winners have been ranked inside the OWGR top ten, but McIlroy and Scheffler are responsible for four of those.
While pivotal most weeks, driving distance is always a good attribute to have, but this is not a course that gives bombers a huge advantage, of course, except for the par fives that average 554 yards. Ball strikers have the most success here, which should come as no surprise given the hazards and the small, well-defended greens they must hit into.
Of the last 13 winners, 11 finished inside the top ten in Strokes Gained: Approach to provide better birdie opportunities, with only 2018 champion Webb Simpson giving back to the field and 2017 champion Si Woo Kim at +4.1 (16th). Strokes Gained: Approach also correlates to Three-Putt Avoidance, which is important all the time but even more so on these fast Bermuda greens.
Course Fit & Current Form Matter
From a results standpoint, recent winners of The Players Championship have a lot in common. Course fit and experience at TPC Sawgrass are important, as is the case with most tournaments held at the same course. Here, 16 of the last 17 winners have had at least one finish inside the top 25 in prior starts, with the one exception being Scheffler, who won in 2023.
Current playing form is just as important: of the last nine winners, seven have finished T21 or better in their last tour event; the two exceptions are Cam Young in 2022, when he finished T33 at The Genesis Invitational, and Si Woo Kim in 2017, after missing the cut at the Zurich Classic. We are not relying heavily on this, but more on looking at the last five events.
You shouldn’t ignore the weather in March; it looks wet on Thursday with a 75% chance of rain, but it clears out afterwards. Forecasts call for temperatures in the mid- to high 70s, with minimal winds gusting no more than 15 mph.
From a statistical standpoint, it is iron play being most important again this week at The 2026 Players Championship, with our top four key categories being:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green
Three-Putt Avoidance
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% for odds, payouts, and results, based on a $1000 unit (an easy round number for bookkeeping), for each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds, which are all from DraftKings:
Hideki Matsuyama
Odds: Win +3700 ~ Top Five +630 ~ Top Ten +295
Payout: Win 1,850.00 ~ Top Five 157.50 ~ Top Ten 73.75
Matsuyama struggled last week with his approach game, which was a big surprise, as it is one of his strengths. He ended up T41, his worst result this season, despite four T13 or better finishes. He was the first-round leader here in 2020 before the cancellation, and he has a solo 5 and a T6 between a pair of MCs in 2021 and 2025. He comes in No. 8 in Strokes Gained: Approach, and what might be surprising, he is No. 4 in Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green, and while he is an average putter, he is No. 30 in Three-Putt Avoidance.
Viktor Hovland
Odds: Win +3700 ~ Top Five +640 ~ Top Ten +310
Payout: Win 1,850.00 ~ Top Five 160.00 ~ Top Ten 77.50
Hovland is coming off a T13 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and he is trending the right way over his last three starts. He missed the cut here last year, but that came after two prior missed cuts, and after missing the cut in his debut in 2021, he posted T9 and T3 finishes in 2022 and 2023, respectively. He comes in No. 2 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and No. 20 in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green, and his putting is a concern, but four of the past six winners finished the week No. 37 or worse in Strokes Gained: Putting, and he has two wins on Bermuda.
Jake Knapp
Odds: Win +4900 ~ Top Five +810 ~ Top Ten +380
Payout: Win 2,450.00 ~ Top Five 202.50 ~ Top Ten 95.00
Knapp withdrew last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to illness, but he will be ready to go this week. He is quietly having a great season, as his T11 at the Sony Open in Hawaii is his worst finish, and he has followed that up with four straight top-10s. He has gone T45 and T12 in two starts at The Stadium Course, and this place suits his game. He is No. 2 in the field in Strokes Gained: Total, and while he is not in the top ten in any of the key categories, although he is No. 11 in Three-Putt Avoidance, he is excellent across the board, which is a big edge here.
Sepp Straka
Odds: Win +5400 ~ Top Five +880 ~ Top Ten +410
Payout: Win 2,700.00 ~ Top Five 220.00 ~ Top Ten 102.50
Straka continues to get no respect as he is well down the betting board despite being No. 9 in the world. He opened 2026 with an MC at The American Express but finished T2 at Pebble Beach and T13 last week. He missed the cut in his debut but has been here on the weekend each of the last four years with three T16s or better, including a T14 last year. He is an elite iron player, ranking T6 in Strokes Gained: Approach, and he is in the top 25 around the greens despite being negative in the last two events. Two of his four PGA Tour wins have been on Bermuda greens.
Results through the Arnold Palmer Invitational (5 Tournaments):
Win: -10,500.00
Top Five: +1,275.00
Top Ten: +2,762.50
