The lone Monday night game on the Week 11 slate pits two struggling teams against each other, but only one still has something to play for. The Dallas Cowboys, sitting at 3-5-1 and clinging to faint NFC Wild Card hopes, head to Allegiant Stadium as 3.5-point road favorites against a Las Vegas Raiders squad that has already turned its attention to the 2026 draft. At -110 on the spread across most major books, Cowboys -3.5 stands out as the sharpest and strongest play of the night.
Dallas enters desperate. A fourth straight loss would essentially end their playoff chances, and history shows this group responds when the season is on the line. Dak Prescott continues to pilot one of the league’s most efficient offense…..currently seventh in EPA per pla….and faces a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom five in points allowed (28.3 per game) and has surrendered the fourth-most production to wide receivers all season. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens should feast against a secondary that relies heavily on zone coverage, while Vegas generates pressure on just 5.7 percent of drop-backs, one of the lowest rates in football. Prescott has eclipsed 250 passing yards in seven of nine starts when given a clean pocket, and that’s exactly what he should see tonight.
On the other side, the Raiders’ offense remains a weekly disaster. Third-worst in efficiency and averaging a paltry 16.8 points per contest, Las Vegas has been held under 20 points in six of nine games and has lost five of its seven defeats by four or more. The running game ranks dead last in DVOA, the quarterback situation is unsettled, and the play-calling has been predictable at best. Even at home, the Raiders are just 1-6 against the spread as underdogs this season and have covered only once in their last ten games inside Allegiant Stadium.
Give me Dallas -3.5 (-110) all day. The motivation gap is massive, the schematic advantages are clear, and the recent trends all point the same direction. Expect a 28-20 type final where Prescott and the Cowboys’ passing attack do just enough to pull away in the second half and cover comfortably on Monday Night Football. Take the Cowboys and don’t overthink it….Boyz cover
