Before we get into our College Football Week 9 betting recap of The Associated Press top 25 games, allow us to send our thoughts and prayers to all bettors who put their hard-earned money on Navy on Saturday.
The Midshipmen were 14.5-point favorites over Florida Atlantic, which surprisingly stopped Navy on fourth down on three straight possessions, including from the 2-yard line on the final play of the first half.
Despite those setbacks, Navy still appeared poised to cover after Blake Horvath’s 31-yard touchdown run put the Midshipmen up 42-19 with 5:29 left. Some Navy bettors, including a certain Wizard Staff Writer, counted the game as a winner at that point and changed the channel to sweat another bet. When they scrolled their phone for scores 15 minutes later, they were horrified to see the final: Navy 42, Florida Atlantic 32.
What the heck happened? Well, the Owls somehow scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes for the dreaded back-door cover. After Zach Gibson threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to Jabari Smith Jr., to cut the deficit to 42-25 with two minutes left, Florida Atlantic improbably recovered the onside kick. Gibson then threw a 9-yard touchdown pass to Smith, sealing the fate of Navy bettors, as the Midshipmen ran out the clock.
Thanks for that therapy session. Pain shared is pain lessened. So we’ve heard.
Overs Lead Top 25 Totals
AP Top 25 favorites went 9-10 against the spread in our CFB Week 9 betting recap, and overs went 13-6.
If only they could all be like No. 2 Indiana, which steamrolled UCLA 56-6 to cruise to a cover as a 27.5-point favorite and go over the total of 53.5 by itself.
No. 3 Texas A&M outscored No. 20 LSU 35-7 in the second half to erase an 18-14 halftime deficit en route to a 49-25 victory and cover as a 2.5-point favorite.
No. 7 Georgia Tech improved to 8-0, along with the Hoosiers and Aggies, after beating Syracuse 41-16 to cover the 17.5-point spread.
No. 9 Miami trailed Stanford 7-0 after the first quarter, but exploded for 42 unanswered points in a 42-7 win to cover the 28.5-point spread.
Other favorites that covered were No. 10 Vanderbilt (-3.5, beat No. 15 Missouri 17-10); No. 14 Texas Tech (-35.5, beat Oklahoma State 42-0); No. 17 Tennessee (-7.5, beat Kentucky 56-34); and No. 21 Cincinnati (-3.5, beat Baylor 41-20).
Unranked Washington beat No. 23 Illinois 42-25, but don’t call it an upset. The Huskies were 3.5-point favorites at home.
Upsets in the Ranks
No. 8 Ole Miss blew a nine-point second-half lead in a 43-35 loss to Georgia in our CFB Week 8 betting recap. But the Rebels redeemed themselves on Saturday with a 34-26 outright upset of No. 13 Oklahoma as 5.5-point underdogs.
No. 11 BYU stayed undefeated at 8-0 in a 41-27 upset of Iowa State as a 2.5-point underdog. The Cougars scored two touchdowns less than a minute apart in the fourth quarter, capped by Faletau Satuala’s pick-six.
Memphis (+3.5) knocked off No. 18 South Florida 34-31 after outscoring the Bulls 17-0 in the fourth quarter.
Houston (+7.5) upset No. 24 Arizona State 24-16 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score suggests. The Cougars led 10-0 after the first quarter and 24-0 after three quarters before the Sun Devils showed any signs of life.
The Unsatisfying Win but No Cover
Six Top 25 favorites left bettors, like Teddy KGB in the movie Rounders, so unsatisfied as they won but didn’t cover—especially those who had Michigan.
The No. 25 Wolverines scored a touchdown in the final minutes to take a 31-13 lead over rival Michigan State, putting themselves in position to cover as 13.5-point favorites. But the Spartans drove 75 yards in nine plays and notched a back-door cover on Alessio Milivojevic’s 21-yard touchdown pass to Michael Masunas with seven seconds left, making the final 31-20.
Other favorites that fell short were No. 4 Alabama (-12.5, beat South Carolina 29-22); No. 6 Oregon (-31.5, beat Wisconsin 21-7); No. 16 Virginia (-12.5, beat North Carolina 17-16 in overtime); No. 19 Louisville (-25.5, beat Boston College 38-24); and No. 22 Texas (-8.5, beat Mississippi State 45-38 in overtime).
Value Play of the Week
In hindsight, the easiest play on the board was arguably Kansas State, which closed as a 3.5-point underdog to Kansas despite winning the last 16 meetings. The Wildcats crushed the Jayhawks 42-17 for their 17th straight victory in the rivalry.