San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — Over 9 (-108)

I made the mistake of taking the Padres Team Total Over on Wednesday — we fell just short by the hook, but the full-game Over was clearly the right side, and I’m back on it here.

Start with Buehler: the last time he faced Arizona, he got shelled for 7 earned runs in 5 innings. This isn’t a small sample fluke — it’s a pitcher with a track record against this specific lineup, and that lineup is riding real momentum after recent performances.

On the other side, Kohl Drake brings just 3 career starts to the mound, and his minor league track record shows plenty of scuffling. San Diego’s lineup is built to feast on exactly this profile — a young, unproven arm without a track record of missing bats at this level.

Two shaky starting pitchers, two lineups with recent history of success, and a young arm without much to lean on. That’s a recipe for runs on both sides.

Play: Over 9 (-108)

Let’s cash some tickets!