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Nelo's Beer Run Free Play
Game:
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Date:
Sunday, Jul 12, 2026
Time:
01:36 pm EDT
Odds:
Over 9.5 (-114)
Under 9.5 (-109)
This total feels a bit too high considering the pitching matchup. Baltimore is expected to send Shane Baz (4.21 ERA) to the mound, while Kansas City counters with veteran Seth Lugo (4.56 ERA). Both starters have shown the ability to work deep into games, with Lugo recording 10 quality starts in 18 outings this season.
A key stat supporting the under is Lugo’s success against Baltimore’s lineup. Current Orioles hitters own just a.102 batting average and .181 wOBA against him in their career matchups.
The offenses have also been fairly average overall. Kansas City is scoring 4.3 runs per game, while Baltimore averages 4.6 runs per game, numbers that don’t justify a total pushing double digits.
Recent history between these teams also supports a lower-scoring contest. Their most recent meeting ended 5-3 Baltimore, staying under this number, and several recent matchups have landed at or below nine total runs.
With two capable starters, a generous total, and historical matchup data favoring the pitchers, the value lies on the under.
Play: Under 9.5 (-109)
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