The NFL MVP odds are always tightly contested, as it’s one of the more entertaining bets you can take among NFL awards. MVP is a contest that typically comes down to the wire, unlike some awards that can almost be determined three-quarters of the way through the season. This season has been as tight as possible. Here, we’ll examine the frontrunners, as well as some names that have snuck up and moved down the odds board.
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen continues to play at an elite level. He opened the season third among the NFL MVP odds at +650 at ESPN BET. Allen grasped the opportunity to move up the board in Week 1 when he helped lead the Bills to a fourth-quarter comeback over Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens. He threw a touchdown to Keon Coleman with 3:56 remaining and rushed for a touchdown with 1:58 remaining before getting the Bills in position for Matt Prater to kick a game-winning 32-yard field goal. Now, Allen is atop the odds board for the award. His best price is +250 at DraftKings, but as low as +170 at FanDuel.
Lamar Jackson
Jackson was the frontrunner entering the season with NFL MVP odds of +450. He has displayed dominance at times with his playmaking, but has seemed to falter when it counts. The Detroit Lions made Jackson visibly uncomfortable in their Monday Night Football matchup. Once again, the Ravens held a late lead, but saw another win slip away. He’s still second on the odds board and has even seen his odds shorten from the preseason. FanDuel offers the best price on Jackson at +320. Jackson could have some opportunities to take a lead down the stretch with late-season games against the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers in the final two weeks of the season, especially if it helps with their playoff seeding.
Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has seen probably the most movement of anyone, other than perhaps Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, whose odds plummeted after being sidelined with turf toe. Herbert came into the season at +1800 on the NFL MVP odds board. Many expected the Chargers to continue establishing their power-run identity from last season, but it has taken on a much different look this season. Herbert is slinging the ball. His 860 passing yards are second in the NFL, and he has thrown for six touchdowns to just one interception. His efficiency shouldn’t be too shocking, as he had a 7.67 touchdown-to-interception ratio last season. He currently sits at +550 at ESPN BET.
Patrick Mahomes
It’s been a rocky start to the season for the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes came in with NFL MVP odds of +650 but has since fallen to +2500 on ESPN BET. They’re 1-2, with their lone win coming against the New York Giants on Sunday night. Both of their losses have come in one-score games. 27-21 to the Chargers and 20-17 to the Philadelphia Eagles. While some might look and ask, “What’s wrong with the Chiefs?” One could argue it’s simply regression to the mean. Last season, the Chiefs were an astounding 11-1 in one-score games, so to see them lose these two to start the season shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The offense is likely to receive significant boosts in the coming weeks. Xavier Worthy is returning to the lineup after a shoulder injury in Week 1, and Rashee Rice will be eligible to return from his suspension in Week 7. If you still believe in Mahomes, +2500 is probably the best price you can get.
Caleb Williams
Many out there predicted that Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams would take a giant next step with his new head coach Ben Johnson at the helm. While the Bears crushed the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3 with Williams tossing four touchdowns, he still has yet to live up to the hype bestowed upon him in the preseason. He entered the season with NFL MVP odds of +2500, but his odds have since ballooned to +10000. While better days are likely ahead as Williams continues to be more comfortable in the system, he likely won’t be competing for this particular award this season.