“It’s never under until it’s over. This one’s over. So it’s under.”
Those bewildering words of wisdom were posted on social media by longtime Las Vegas sportsbook director Chris Andrews after the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys dealt over bettors a brutal bad beat in the NFL season opener on “Thursday Night Football.” And so goes the theme of the Week 1 NFL betting recap.
The consensus total on the game was 47.5, and the teams combined for 41 in the first half, which ended with the Eagles ahead 21-20. Most over bettors were already counting their winnings as they needed only seven points in the second half to cash their tickets. But Philadelphia kicker Jake Elliott’s 58-yard field goal with 8:30 left in the third quarter turned out to be the only points in the second half of the Eagles’ 24-20 triumph.
The unlikely under set the tone for the rest of NFL Week 1, as unders cashed in 12 of 16 games. The other three prime-time games went over, with the Minnesota Vikings outscoring the Chicago Bears 21-7 in the fourth quarter to rally for a 27-24 win on “Monday Night Football.”
The lowest total on the board, 38 for the Steelers-Jets, soared over the total as Pittsburgh beat New York 34-32 behind Aaron Rodgers’ four touchdown passes.
Favorite Things
The first week of the 2025 NFL season was reminiscent of the 2024 season, when money line favorites won more than 70 percent of the games.
Favorites went 11-3 straight up in Week 1, dealing a blow to some sportsbooks.
“Overall, Week 1 resulted in a modest win for customers,” Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “The 2025 season has picked up right where 2024 left off, with favorites continuing their strong run.”
Two games closed at pick’em (Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Atlanta Falcons and Bears-Vikings), though the teams that entered the week as favorites prevailed in Tampa and Minnesota.
The three underdogs that won outright were the Los Angeles Chargers (+3, beat Kansas City Chiefs 27-21), Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5, beat New England Patriots 20-13), and Buffalo Bills (+1.5, beat Baltimore Ravens 41-40).
Baltimore Bad Beat
Bettors who backed Baltimore were dealt a bad beat when the Ravens blew a 40-25 lead with less than four minutes remaining in the “Sunday Night Football” shootout at Orchard Park, New York.
The Bills exploded for 16 unanswered points in the final four minutes of the stunning comeback, helped by a Derrick Henry fumble with 3:06 left. Four plays later, reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen scored on a 1-yard run to cut the deficit to 40-38. Buffalo got the ball back after its defense forced Baltimore to go three-and-out, and Allen directed a 66-yard scoring drive capped by Matt Prater’s walk-off 32-yard field goal.
Close Calls
Bears and under bettors were dealt tough beats on Monday night, when Chicago led Minnesota 17-6 after three quarters. Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy accounted for three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, throwing for two and running for one, to push the game over the total (43.5) and give Minnesota a 27-17 lead en route to its 27-24 victory.
Favorites went 7-7 against the spread.
The Broncos (-8.5) had a chance to cover on a 53-yard field goal with 1:05 left but opted to go for it instead on fourth-and-8 and turned it over on downs on their way to a 20-12 triumph over the Tennessee Titans.
The Rams (-3) escaped with a 14-9 win and cover over the Texans after Houston lost a fumble at the Los Angeles’ 24 with 1:51 remaining.
The Cardinals (-5.5) held on for a 20-13 win and cover over the Saints after sweating out three straight incompletions by New Orleans quarterback Spencer Rattler in the final seconds from the Arizona 18.
The 49ers (-2) pulled out a 17-13 victory over the Seahawks after third-string tight end Jake Tonges snagged a deflected 4-yard pass from Brock Purdy for a go-ahead touchdown with 1:34 left. Nick Bosa then strip-sacked Sam Darnold deep in San Francisco territory with 42 seconds to go to seal the win.
Younghoe Koo killed the hopes and dreams of Falcons and under bettors when he missed a 44-yard field goal with six seconds remaining that would’ve tied the game at 23-all. Instead, the Buccaneers escaped with a 23-20 win, and the game stayed under the total of 47.5.
Again, it wasn’t under until it was over.