After favorites dominated Week 8 in the NFL by going 11-2 against the spread, underdogs bit back in our NFL Week 9 betting recap.
Heading into Monday Night Football, dogs are 8-5 ATS with five outright wins, much to the chagrin of the betting public, which typically backs favorites.
The Packers, Lions, Colts, and Chiefs all suffered upset losses in what was an excellent week for sportsbooks.
“We had a great morning. The best morning of the season so far,” Westgate SuperBook vice president John Murray told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “Vikings, Steelers, Panthers, all good for us. Titans covering, too.”
The Panthers pulled off the biggest outright upset in a stunning 16-13 win over Green Bay at Lambeau Field as 13-point underdogs. Ryan Fitzgerald kicked a 49-yard field goal as time expired to lift Carolina (5-4) a week after it was blown out 40-9 at home by the Bills, and the Packers whipped the Steelers 35-25 in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers bounced back from that defeat, which was especially disappointing for former Green Bay great Aaron Rodgers, now Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback, with a 27-20 win over the Colts as 3-point underdogs. The Steelers trailed 7-0 before reeling off 24 straight points.
The Vikings manhandled Detroit in a 27-24 triumph as 9.5-point road favorites in quarterback J.J. McCarthy’s return from a high ankle sprain that sidelined him for five games. Minnesota sacked Lions quarterback Jared Goff six times.
Dreaded Backdoor Cover
Tennessee fell to 1-8 after a 27-20 home loss to the Chargers, but the Titans covered for only the fifth time in their last 21 games as 10-point underdogs. Joey Slye’s 37-yard field goal with 4:19 remaining was good for a backdoor cover that Los Angeles backers dreaded.
“It was one of the better, if not the best Sunday so far of the year,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito told the Review-Journal. “Getting three money line dogs to win outright, and especially the Vikings game. It just shows there’s so much parity in the league.”
The Patriots won their sixth straight game but saw their five-game cover streak come to an end in a 24-23 victory over the Falcons. New England, a 5.5-point favorite, led 21-7 late in the first half before Atlanta strip-sacked Drake Maye and scored two plays later on Michael Penix’s 2-yard touchdown pass to Drake London with 12 seconds left before the break.
Patriots bettors still had a chance to cover, clinging to a 24-17 lead midway through the fourth quarter. But Penix hit London on fourth-and-4 to keep a drive alive and then fired an 8-yard touchdown pass to London on fourth-and-goal to cut the deficit to 24-23 with 4:40 left. Parker Romo then missed the extra point, and neither team scored again.
Bullish on the Bills
Buffalo beat Kansas City 28-21 as a 2.5-point home underdog to run their regular-season winning streak to five games over the Chiefs. However, the Bills have lost their last four playoff games to the Kansas City Chiefs.
“The afternoon games were completely overshadowed by the matchup of the week in Buffalo,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told the Review-Journal. “The difference in handle between the Chiefs and Bills compared to the other two games was astronomical.
“All the results in the afternoon went the customers’ way with two favorites covering and the very popular Bills on the money line.”
The betting public and sharps alike were on Buffalo at the Westgate.
“We saw sharp guys on the Bills early in the week and the public loved them late in the week,” Murray told the Review-Journal. “Kansas City was our biggest afternoon need. Not very often I say that.”
Books cleaned up on the under as bettors were all over the over. The game was on pace to go over with 34 points in the first half, but the teams combined for only 15 points in the second half, in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game.
“The key to the whole afternoon was keeping the Chiefs-Bills game under,” Esposito told the Review-Journal.
Rollercoaster in Cincinnati
The Bears and Bengals had no problem cashing over tickets for bettors as they flew over the total of 51.5 in the third quarter. Chicago was one of five favorites that covered in Week 9, in a wild 47-42 win as a 3-point favorite that featured three touchdowns in the final 1:43.
Joe Flacco threw two touchdown passes as Cincinnati turned a 41-27 deficit into a 42-41 lead with 54 seconds left. But that was too much time to give the Bears, who regained the lead on Caleb Williams’ 58-yard touchdown pass to Colston Loveland with 17 seconds left.
The other favorites that covered were the 49ers (-2.5, beat the Giants 34-24), Rams (-14, beat the Saints 34-10), Seahawks (-3, beat the Commanders 38-14), and Ravens (-7.5, beat the Dolphins 28-6 on Thursday Night Football).