You can add another chapter to the big book of bad beats.
Bettors who backed the Jaguars as 1.5-point underdogs to the Texans in our NFL Week 10 betting recap excruciatingly lost their money after Jacksonville blew a 29-10 fourth-quarter lead in a 36-29 loss.
Houston backup quarterback Davis Mills engineered the epic comeback in his first start in more than two years in place of injured starter C.J. Stroud. Mills threw two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter and ran 14 yards for the go-ahead score with 31 seconds left to put the Texans ahead 30-29. Jaguars bettors getting 1.5 were celebrating when Houston’s two-point conversion attempt failed.
But their euphoria turned to stunned disbelief on the final play of the game, when Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence was strip-sacked by Will Anderson. Texans defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins recovered the fumble and rumbled 32 yards for a touchdown with no time left to deliver a crushing blow to Jags’ backers and a miracle cover to Houston bettors.
“The Texans’ comeback win was one of those classic bad beat moments for the book,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “What looked like a solid book result turned into a big swing for the public, and was especially painful when it hit both pregame and in-play markets.”
The wild finish was a swing in favor of the Westgate SuperBook in Vegas, as it would’ve lost on both sides if the Texans won by one point after Houston ranged from a 1.5-point underdog to a 1.5-point favorite before closing as a 1-point favorite.
“That was our lucky moment of the day because we were in a position to get middled there, and we were able to get out of getting middled because of that last-second touchdown,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray told the Review-Journal. “Everybody complains about their bad beats, whether you’re on our side of the counter or the customer … and I’m part of that myself. But certainly that was one that we’ll remember and say, ‘Yeah, that sure was lucky.'”
Tale of Two Timeslots
Favorites were 6-6-1 against the spread in Week 10 entering “Monday Night Football” and overs went 7-6.
It should’ve been so easy for bettors to win big in the late window of games Sunday afternoon, as all three favorites covered and all three games went over.
The Rams (-5.5, 49.5) whipped the 49ers 42-26, the Lions (-8, 48.5) crushed the Commanders 44-22, and the Seahawks (-7, 44.5) smoked the Cardinals 44-22. All gamblers had to do was put all three favorites and overs in a six-team parlay, and they could’ve cashed an easy 40-1 score.
But the betting public likely lacked confidence after being beaten in the morning games, as favorites went 2-5-1 ATS, with four outright upsets by underdogs.
“The morning was probably one of our best mornings of the year,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito told the Review-Journal. “But the afternoon was probably one of our worst afternoons of the year.”
The Dolphins blew out the Bills 30-13 as 8-point home underdogs in one of the biggest upsets of the season. Miami dominated Buffalo, recording three takeaways and three sacks, on its way to snapping a seven-game losing streak to its division rival.
“The Dolphins was definitely the best game for us,” Murray told the Review-Journal. “I can’t really wrap my head around Miami. A couple weeks ago, they go to Atlanta on the road and just crush the Falcons (34-10). Other weeks, they look like one of the worst teams in the league. I don’t know how you get a handle on the Dolphins.
“It’s just a good example of why it’s so hard to bet on the NFL.”
Saints (Finally) March In
A week after the Panthers stunned the Packers in a 16-13 upset at Lambeau Field in our NFL Week 9 betting recap, Carolina was a very popular pick to beat the Saints and cover as a 5.5-point home favorite. But New Orleans dealt a blow to bettors by handing the Panthers a 17-7 defeat.
Carolina was also the most popular selection in the $1,000-entry Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, eliminating 490 entries and leaving exactly 1,000 entries alive in the quest for the $18.7 million prize.
In Like the Lions
The Lions were the best result for the betting public, and so were the Ravens, who are back on track with quarterback Lamar Jackson behind center. Baltimore beat the Vikings 27-19 and covered as 4.5-point favorites.
“The Ravens are becoming a public darling with Lamar back in form,” Feazel told the Review-Journal. “Their momentum is palpable, and it’s no surprise that they were a big win for customers.”
The Chargers (-3) were another popular favorite that came through in a 25-10 win over the Steelers on Sunday Night Football.
Barking Dogs
The Jets (+2) beat the Browns 27-20, and the Patriots (+2.5) beat the Buccaneers 28-23. The Giants (+4.5) covered in a 24-20 loss to the Bears after blowing a late 10-point lead.