NFL – FREE PLAY: Patriots (483) vs. Bills (484)

The Bills are off to a strong 4-0 start, but the argument could be made this is the best team Buffalo has faced so far (with the hindsight of the Ravens performances since their Week 1 match-up). Their defense ranks 22nd in opponent EPA so far, and with three of those games being against the Jets, Dolphins & Saints, that’s not good. The Patriots currently have the third best rushing defense in the league, and with Christian Gonzalez back in the secondary last week, that helps the pass defense immensely. The Bills’ defense is tops in the league against the pass, but one of the worst against rushing offenses. This is a division-rivalry match-up in primetime, and Mike Vrabel will have the Patriots ready to play. The Bills might win, but I can’t see the Patriots losing by more than a touchdown either.