NCAAF – FREE PLAY: Oklahoma State (129) vs. UCF (130)

The Big 12’s basement has never looked uglier than it does in late November 2025. Two teams with a combined five wins, one of them already mathematically eliminated from bowl contention, and the other clinging to life with a quarterback room that looks like a MASH unit. Yet here we are, staring at a 14-point spread that feels almost insulting—until you realize Oklahoma State is the one catching the points. Give me UCF -14 and let’s cash this ticket before the Bounce House inflates and common sense deflates.

Scott Frost wasn’t entirely joking when he floated the idea of dusting off his Heisman finalist cleats to run scout-team offense this week. The Knights are down to two scholarship quarterbacks—neither of whom looked particularly healthy in last week’s 48-9 embarrassment against Texas Tech. Tayven Jackson, the nominal starter, limped through 128 passing yards and took a beating. Davi Belfort, a redshirt freshman who has thrown exactly nine collegiate passes, is the emergency parachute. Cam Fancher and Jacurri Brown are both out for the season with broken ribs and a shredded AC joint, respectively. Frost is literally running option plays with walk-ons in practice just to give his defense a look.

And still, somehow, UCF is the play.

Oklahoma State has quit. There’s no kinder way to put it. The Cowboys are 1-9, winless in Big 12 play, and fresh off a 14-6 loss to Kansas State in which they finally won the yardage battle… and still managed to lose by eight because they can’t stop turning the football over. They’ve dropped 18 of their last 19 games dating back to last season. Interim coach Doug Meacham is 0-7, and the roster has checked out faster than seniors on the last day of high school. This is the worst Oklahoma State team in the modern era, and they’re walking into a stadium where UCF has been a covering machine.

The Knights are 10-2 against the spread in their last dozen conference home games when they actually win the game, and even in defeat they rarely get blown out in Orlando. The Bounce House remains one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the sport—sweltering heat, deafening noise, and that ridiculous inflatable tunnel that seems to hypnotize visiting teams into early mistakes. Oklahoma State is 3-5 ATS this year as a two-touchdown (or larger) underdog and has failed to cover in six of its last seven road games.

The advanced metrics are a bloodbath. UCF ranks in the top 20 nationally in points per play allowed (0.30) despite all the offensive chaos. Oklahoma State is 131st in scoring defense (36.3 PPG) and dead last in the Big 12 in turnover margin. The Cowboys give the ball away like it’s burning their hands, and UCF—somehow, someway—still forces turnovers at a top-25 rate even while starting backup quarterbacks who learned the playbook last Tuesday.

Yes, the Knights have scored 24 points combined in their last three games. Yes, the quarterback situation is a five-alarm fire. But this week they get an Oklahoma State defense that ranks 134th in total defense and has allowed 427 yards per game in conference play. RJ Harvey is still healthy, still averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and still capable of ripping off 150+ on the ground against a Cowboys front that quit tackling sometime around Halloween.

Lay the 14. Take it to 17 if you can find it. Hell, tease it up to -8 if you’re feeling conservative. UCF’s season is on life support, and nothing resuscitates a dying campaign like beating up on the one team in the league that’s already flatlined. The Knights still control their own bowl destiny with games against Oklahoma State and Colorado remaining. They’re not letting this one slip away at home.

Final call: UCF 38, Oklahoma State 17. Cover feels like the floor, not the ceiling.

Play of the week: UCF -14 (-110). Bounce House, baby.