NCAAF – FREE PLAY: Nevada (401) vs. Fresno State (402)

Nevada vs. Fresno State: Game Preview and Prediction
Date & Time: October 4, 2025, 10:30 PM EDT
Location: Valley Children’s Stadium, Fresno, CA
Broadcast: CBSSN (CBS Sports Network)

Team Overview
Nevada Wolf Pack (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
Record Breakdown: 1-1 ATS on the road, 0-0 in conference play
Recent Performance: Lost 16-31 at Western Kentucky
Next Game: Hosts San Diego State

Offense: Struggles significantly, averaging just 15 PPG (among the nation’s worst). The rushing attack shows promise with 753 yards (led by RB Savion Red, 5.3 yards per carry), but the passing game is dismal, with only 624 yards (122nd nationally).
Defense: Allows 27 points and 387.3 yards per game (74th in points allowed).
Weaknesses: Inconsistent quarterback play and poor third down conversion rate (35%).

Fresno State Bulldogs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U)
Record Breakdown: 2-0 ATS at home, 0-1 in conference play
Recent Performance: Edged Hawaii 23-21 but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites
Next Game: Travels to Colorado State
Offense: Averages a robust 32.8 PPG, led by steady QB EJ Warner (230 yards, 1 TD vs. Hawaii).
Defense: Opportunistic, forcing four turnovers against Hawaii (including a pick-six), allowing 20 points per game.
Weaknesses: Penalties are a concern, with 267 penalty yards in five games.

Head-to-Head History
Fresno State has dominated the series, winning the last four matchups against Nevada, though they’ve covered the spread in only one of those games.

Analysis
Fresno State enters as the clear favorite, leveraging their home field advantage, superior scoring output, and a defense that thrives on creating turnovers. Nevada’s rushing attack, led by Savion Red, could find some early success, but their anemic passing game (122nd nationally) will likely struggle against Fresno’s aggressive pass rush, anchored by linebacker Jadon Pearson (35 tackles). The Bulldogs’ ability to capitalize on mistakes—evidenced by their four takeaway performance against Hawaii—should exploit Nevada’s inconsistent quarterback play. While Fresno State’s penalty issues (267 yards this season) could keep Nevada in the game early, the Bulldogs’ offensive consistency and defensive opportunism should take over in the second half. Expect Fresno to pull away for a decisive victory in a controlled, relatively low scoring game, as Nevada’s offensive struggles limit the total points.

Prediction
Pick: Fresno State -14
Total: Under 45.5

Fresno State’s balanced attack and defensive playmaking should overwhelm Nevada, covering the spread comfortably while keeping the game under the total in a one sided affair.

Let’s cash some tickets!