NCAAF – FREE PLAY: Colorado (381) vs. TCU (382)

Colorado vs. TCU Preview
Date/Time: October 4, 2025, 7:30 PM EDT
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Broadcast: Fox Sports Team Records and Trends
Colorado (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U) ATS Road: 0-1
ATS Conference: 1-1
Recent Game: Lost 21-24 to BYU, covered +6.5
Next Up: Hosts Iowa
Scoring: 25.8 PPG | Allowing: 22.8 PPG

TCU (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U) ATS Home: 1-1
ATS Conference: 0-0-1
Recent Game: Lost 24-27 at Arizona State
Next Up: At Kansas State
Scoring: 37.3 PPG | Allowing: 21.5 PPG
National Ranks: #27 Total Yards, #26 Yards Per Play

Recent History 2022: TCU won 38-13 at Colorado (-8, U58)
2023: Colorado upset TCU 45-42 at Fort Worth (+21, O64)

Both teams are hungry for their first Big 12 win, setting the stage for a high stakes showdown.

Colorado Breakdown
The Buffaloes lean on a balanced offense spearheaded by dual threat QB Kaidon Salter (684 passing yards, 5 TDs; significant rushing contributions). RB Micah Welch (210 yards, 1 TD) and WR Joseph Williams (220 yards, 2 TDs) are key playmakers, but the run game has struggled against Power Four defenses. Defensively, Colorado is reeling. They rank second worst in the Big 12, allowing 197.2 rushing yards per game, with a pass defense outside the top 100 nationally. Injuries exacerbate their woes: DB RJ Johnson (questionable) could further weaken the secondary, and RB Dekalon Taylor’s questionable status strains backfield depth.

TCU Breakdown
TCU’s offense is dynamic, averaging 37.3 points per game, driven by a potent passing attack (320 yards/game, 4th in Big 12, 26th nationally). QB Josh Hoover (1,242 yards, 11 TDs) has been exceptional, targeting WR Eric McAlister, who earned national honors after a 254-yard, 3-TD performance against SMU. However, their run game lags (540 yards, 102nd nationally). TCU’s third down conversion rate (57.7%, 9th in FBS) keeps drives alive. The Horned Frogs’ defense allows 21.5 points per game but showed vulnerabilities in their loss to Arizona State (291 passing yards, 209 rushing yards allowed). They excel at limiting big plays but struggle against mobile QBs like Salter. TCU is 2-0 at home this season and 7-0 SU as favorites over the past two years, with the Amon G. Carter crowd providing a significant boost.

Key Matchups TCU’s Passing Attack vs. Colorado’s Secondary: Hoover and McAlister could exploit Colorado’s injury depleted defensive backfield. If the Buffs can’t pressure Hoover, TCU’s air raid could push the game total over.
Colorado’s Run Game vs. TCU’s Front Seven: Welch and Salter face a TCU defense that allowed 209 rushing yards last week. A strong ground game could keep Colorado competitive and control the clock.
Turnover Margin: Both teams have faltered in losses due to turnovers (Colorado: 1 INT vs. BYU; TCU: squandered an early lead vs. Arizona State). Ball security will be critical.

Analysis and Prediction
TCU’s explosive offense and home field advantage give them a clear edge against a Colorado team hampered by defensive injuries and an inconsistent run game. The Horned Frogs’ passing attack should overwhelm the Buffs’ porous secondary, while their defense is likely to force Salter into mistakes. Expect TCU to rebound with authority in Fort Worth, covering the spread in a potential blowout. However, Colorado’s ability to establish the run could keep this closer than expected, especially if they capitalize on TCU’s defensive lapses against mobile QBs. The game is likely to stay under due to Colorado’s offensive struggles against elite defenses.
Pick: TCU -13.5
Alternative: TCU Team Total Over 35.5 (-110) to hedge against a potential backdoor cover.

Let’s cash some tickets!