NCAAF – FREE PLAY: Cincinnati (397) vs. Oklahoma State (398)

Cincinnati Bearcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys: Game Preview

Saturday, October 18, 2025 | 8:00 p.m. ET | Boone Pickens Stadium | ESPN2

The No. 24 Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1, 3-0 Big 12) head to Stillwater as heavy favorites against a reeling Oklahoma State Cowboys squad (1-5, 0-3 Big 12). This Big 12 clash pits a surging Bearcats team riding a five game winning streak against the Cowboys, who’ve dropped their last five contests amid coaching turmoil—head coach Mike Gundy was fired after a disastrous 1-3 start, with defensive coordinator Doug Meacham taking over as interim. Cincinnati enters the Top 25 for the first time since 2022, signaling a return to relevance under Scott Satterfield, but the pressure of national expectations adds an intriguing layer to this road test.

Records and Betting Trends

Cincinnati: 5-1 straight-up (SU); 4-2 against the spread (ATS); 1-0 ATS on the road; 2-1 ATS in conference play.

Oklahoma State: 1-5 SU; 1-5 ATS; 1-3 ATS at home; 1-2 ATS in conference.

Cincinnati has dominated lately, outscoring opponents 180-96 over their last five wins. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has been blown out in four of their last five losses, averaging a 28.2-point defeat margin.

Key Matchup: Bearcats’ Balanced Attack vs. Cowboys’ Porous Defense

Cincinnati’s offense ranks among the nation’s elite, checking in at No. 2 in yards per play (7.8) and No. 5 in yards per rush (6.2), fueling an explosive 36.0 points per game (PPG) average. The Bearcats boast a run-first identity, averaging 190.2 rushing yards per game, complemented by efficient passing. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been a turnover averse maestro, tossing 14 touchdowns against just 1 interception while spreading the ball to a deep receiving corps. Leading rusher Evan Pryor (349 yards, 2 TDs) anchors a ground game that’s forced defenses into predictable pass coverage, where Cincinnati thrives.

Oklahoma State’s defense, however, is a nightmare matchup. The Cowboys surrender 36.7 PPG overall and have allowed at least 39 points in each of their last three games, ranking 125th nationally in scoring defense. Their run defense is particularly vulnerable, yielding 177.2 rushing yards per game and 6.7 yards per defensive play—exposing them to Cincinnati’s power scheme. The Cowboys’ offense, averaging a paltry 16.5 PPG on 4.6 yards per play, relies on sporadic big plays but lacks the firepower to match the Bearcats in a potential shootout. With a -0.2 turnover margin and recent coaching upheaval, Oklahoma State figures to struggle generating momentum at home.

Cincinnati’s stingy defense (19.2 PPG allowed) further tilts the scales, holding opponents to 5.4 yards per play and forcing a +0.2 turnover edge through disciplined play.

Prediction

Expect Cincinnati to dictate terms early and often, leveraging their ground-and-pound approach to control the clock and wear down a demoralized Cowboys unit. The Bearcats should flirt with 40 points while holding Oklahoma State under 10 in a lopsided affair.

Pick: Cincinnati -21.5 (-110)

Lean: Under 57.5 (-105)—Oklahoma State’s anemic scoring caps the total despite Cincinnati’s potency.

Let’s cash some tickets!