I don’t trust Toledo on the road and I don’t trust Rockets coach Jason Candle when it comes to laying a big number like this.

Toledo is 2-5 ATS the last seven times laying nine or more points. This includes a 14-13 road loss to Western Michigan as 13 1/2-point favorites on Sept. 20.

Bowling Green has covered three of its last four games. The Falcons defeated Liberty, 23-13, as 6-point home ‘dogs three games ago. Bowling Green is 2-0 at home. Toledo is 0-2 on the road.

The Falcons certainly won’t lack motivation as this is the 90th meeting in this I-75 rivalry.

Toledo’s defensive strength is its secondary. Bowling Green, however, is more ground-oriented. Cameron Pettaway averages 5.1 yards per carry for the Falcons and also is ranked No. 1 in the country in average kickoff return yards at 37.3 per game.

The Falcons’ defense has improved enough where they can stay within double-digits of Toledo and perhaps even pull a straight-up upset victory like Western Michigan did against the Rockets.