Bet against the public.
That ever-popular wagering strategy has certainly paid dividends this season, including Saturday in college football Week 3.
The five most bet Top 25 college football games at BetMGM, by total wagers, went 1-4 against the spread and are now 2-13 ATS this season.
Backdoor Ducks
Oregon was the most popular play as a 24.5-point favorite over Northwestern. The Ducks appeared headed for a cover after going ahead 34-0 early in the fourth quarter. But the Wildcats scored two touchdowns in the final 6:20 for a dreaded backdoor cover in a 34-14 loss.
Oregon bettors were still covering with less than two minutes left when the Wildcats dealt them a brutal bad beat. Northwestern had the ball at its own 21 when running back Dashun Reeder broke loose for a 79-yard touchdown run for the final margin.
Bulldogs Blow It
Georgia, the second most bet team at BetMGM as a 4-point favorite over Tennessee, trailed the Vols 21-7 after the first quarter before storming back to take a 27-21 lead late in the third quarter on Peyton Woodring’s 48-yard field goal.
That was the only point in the game where the Bulldogs were covering, though, as they had to rally to tie the game late and were fortunate to head to overtime after Tennessee kicker Max Gilbert missed a 43-yard field goal that would’ve won it with three seconds left.
Georgia held the Vols to a field goal in overtime before scoring a touchdown on Josh McCray’s 1-yard run to prevail 44-41. But, with no extra point needed in overtime, the Bulldogs did not cover the spread, which closed at 3.5 at most sportsbooks. Some bettors who laid -3 salvaged a push.
Tigers Trash Tickets
Clemson, the third most popular play at BetMGM as a 3-point favorite over Georgia Tech, trailed 13-0 in the first half and 21-14 in the fourth quarter. The Tigers tied it at 21-all with 3:26 to play, giving hope to countless bettors that they could still cover, including one at Caesars Sportsbook that bet $165,000 on Clemson.
But Yellow Jackets kicker Aidan Birr drilled a 55-yard field goal as time expired to lift Georgia Tech to a 24-21 win and turn those tickets into trash as the Tigers, a trendy preseason pick to win it all this season, fell to 1-2.
Bulls Get Buried
South Florida was the fourth most bet team at MGM as a 17.5 point underdog to Miami after opening the season with upsets over ranked Boise State and Florida. But the Hurricanes bullied the Bulls in a 49-12 beatdown.
LSU Late Cover
LSU, the fifth most bet team at MGM as a 7-point favorite over Florida, was the only top-five popular play that rewarded the public with a cover. The Tigers intercepted five of Gators quarterback DJ Lagway’s passes in a 20-10 victory to improve to 3-0 (2-1 ATS).
Dashawn Spears scored on a 58-yard Pick-6 for LSU midway through the third quarter for the only points of the second half. Florida drove to the LSU 39 in the final minutes before Lagway threw his fifth pick with 2:07 remaining, and the Tigers ran out the clock.
Best of the Rest
In other top 25 games, Texas A&M rallied to stun Notre Dame 41-40 in South Bend, Indiana, as a 6.5-point underdog and +210 on the money line. The Fighting Irish went ahead 40-34 with 2:53 to go on Jeremiyah Love’s 12-yard run, but a botched snap on the extra point kept the lead at six. Aggies quarterback Marcel Reed threw an 11-yard touchdown pass to Nate Boerkircher on fourth-and-goal with 13 seconds left as Texas A&M snapped a 13-game road losing streak to ranked opponents. The Irish fell to 0-2 after playing for the national championship last season.
Some popular plays that cashed tickets for the public were Michigan (-28, beat Central Michigan 63-3), Texas Tech (-24, beat Oregon State 45-14), Illinois (-27.5, beat Western Michigan 38-0), and Utah (-24, beat Wyoming 31-6).
Ohio State bettors either lost as 28.5-point favorites over Ohio or pushed on the consensus line of -28 in the Buckeyes’ 37-9 win. A Caesars gambler took the point spread out of the equation on the game. The bettor wagered $70,000 to win $1,000 on Ohio State on the money line (-7,000). They won, but not without a bit of a sweat.
Ohio closed to 13-9 early in the third quarter when Parker Navarro hit Chase Hendricks for a 67-yard touchdown pass. But the Buckeyes scored on their next four drives.