Red Sox vs. Padres – Free Totals Forecast: Over 7.5 (-116)
With Brayan Bello (8-5, 3.03) and Dylan Cease (4-10, 4.60) set to square off, the over 7.5 (-116) leans sharp given several current trends.
Bello’s sinker-heavy approach can induce grounders, but his road splits and issues against left-handed bats leave the door open for early traffic. Meanwhile, Cease, though capable of brilliance, hasn’t maintained high strikeout rates this season and continues to fight for command deep into outings.
While Petco Park hasn’t been a consistent over venue in 2025, both lineups possess the blend of speed and pop to capitalize on shaky command. The over has hit in five of San Diego’s last seven overall and in four straight at home—including the first two of this series.
Boston’s top of the order has been barreling fastballs, and San Diego’s bats have found rhythm against non-elite righties. Since arriving in San Diego, Xander Bogaerts has delivered a 149 wRC+ at Petco, outperforming league average by 49%—a critical edge in a matchup like this.
Factor in middle-tier bullpens and you’ve got a setup primed for crooked innings. This total doesn’t demand fireworks—just a few timely doubles and shaky command to get us over the number.