Dana Lane
Saturday’s Astros–Red Sox matchup presents a compelling case for the Under 9.5, even with Boston’s strong splits against left-handed pitching.
Colton Gordon will face a Red Sox lineup that’s hit lefty starters to the tune of a .270 average and .807 OPS—better than their numbers vs. righties—but Gordon’s recent form suggests he can still limit damage. He’s mixing speeds well and keeping hitters off balance, especially early in counts.
Walker Buehler, meanwhile, has pitched to contact effectively in July, failing to strike out more than four in any start, but he’s been effective at suppressing big innings. Houston’s offense has averaged 4.9 runs over their last 10 games, but they’ve been streaky, with production clustered in a few blowouts against Minnesota.
Fenway Park has leaned under lately, with seven straight unders along with a push mixed in.
Both bullpens are trending up, and with Buehler’s efficiency and Gordon’s ability to navigate Boston’s lefty-heavy order, this game projects as a tight, low-scoring affair.