NCAAF – FREE PLAY: TCU (393) vs. BYU (394)

TCU @ BYU
Saturday, November 15, 2025 | 10:15 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT | ESPN

Records & Trends
TCU (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

1-2-1 ATS on road
0-2-1 ATS in Big 12 road games
1-3 ATS last 4 games overall
BYU (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS)

3-1 ATS at home
3-1 ATS last 4 games
8-1 SU in last 9 home night games
Stakes
BYU: Controls its own path to the Big 12 title. Win out = championship game berth.
TCU: Eliminated from CFP contention with any loss, but a road upset in Provo would bolster their résumé for the committee.

Last Week
TCU: Gut punch home loss to Iowa State; late collapse exposed vulnerabilities.
BYU: First loss of the season at Texas Tech (a quality opponent). No shame, but pride is on the line returning to Provo.
Matchup Keys
BYU Offense (Big 12 #1, Top-15 nat’l in PPG & total yds)

Averaging 39.5 PPG at home.
Struggled at Texas Tech, but TCU’s opportunistic (not elite) defense ranks outside the Top 50 in yards allowed. Expect bounce back.
TCU Offense

Balanced, up tempo attack.
BYU’s run D is stout, but secondary is vulnerable—TCU should exploit through the air.
Series History

TCU has won last 3 meetings.
Intangibles
BYU: Night game in Provo altitude, motivated senior class, proven home dominance.
TCU: Road woes + emotional hangover from ISU collapse.
Line Movement & Public Sentiment
BYU opened -4.5, now -3; public heavily on Cougars (sharp concern, but motivation gap is real).
Pick: BYU -3
BYU’s superior offense, home-field edge, and championship urgency outweigh TCU’s series edge and pace. Cougars cover in a statement rebound.

Let’s cash some tickets!