Quinn Priester (11–2, 3.49 ERA) has quietly turned a corner since landing in Milwaukee, showing real growth after brief stops in Boston after coming over in a trade with Pittsburgh.
When he’s ahead in the count, opponents are hitting just .190—a sign he’s learning how to finish hitters.
He’ll face a Reds lineup that’s been hit-or-miss against right-handed pitching, ranking 17th in in the majors, hitting .254.
His mound opponents, Zack Littell (9–8, 3.60 ERA) isn’t overpowering with a fastball clocking in at 91–92 mph, but he’s mastered the art of soft contact and keeping the ball in the yard—just three homers allowed over his last 34.1 innings, something he struggled with when the weather turned warmer. That’s a must have trait at Great American Ball Park, where the ball tends to fly.
Both bullpens have been sharp: Milwaukee ranks 9th in bullpen ERA (3.88), while Cincinnati has allowed just four earned runs over their last 13.1 innings.
Despite 70% of the betting money coming in on the over, this game has the feel of a tight, low-scoring battle. If Priester avoids the big inning—a flaw that’s haunted him in the past but seems to be fading—this one could stay comfortably under.
Smart bettors should consider fading the public and locking in the UNDER 9.
Photo courtesy of Sean Biehle | Flickr