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Pick: Cubs -123
The hard cold fact is this: Braves starter Spencer Strider is far from the dominant pitcher he was before he underwent major elbow surgery last year. His fastball is diminished and the numbers are not pretty – 5-12 record, 4.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP.
Cubs starter Colin Rea isn’t drawing any comparisons to Fergie Jenkins, but he has better numbers than Strider with a 10-6 record, 4.23 ERA and 1.32 ratio.
Strider is in terrible form, too, allowing 21 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 18 2/3 innings. Strider has surrendered seven homers during this span. The Cubs are a top-five scoring team.
The bar is set much lower for Rea. Atlanta has a mediocre offense and is traveling from Philadelphia after playing in the Sunday night game. The Braves are going to lack rest with this being an afternoon game. It’s also Atlanta’s eighth consecutive road game.
Home/road splits can’t be overlooked here either. The Cubs are 41-25 at Wrigley Field. The Braves are 29-42 on the road.
The price is low enough to be able to safely invest in the Cubs.
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