The Buccaneers are just 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite under Todd Bowles. After only beating Houston and Atlanta by a combined four points, I think this is a tough spot with a rest disadvantage. The Bucs are just 45.5% ATS in those situations and 44.8% ATS following a win since 2022.

Justin Fields is out, but Tyrod Taylor might actually be an upgrade. Taylor is 36 years old and has been written off as a starter, but the man has been solid overall when given opportunities. Taylor and the Jets will be motivated and give the Bucs a scare.

Take: Jets +6.5 (2.5% play)