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Featured Match-up: Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins (-156/8.5 over -115)
Time: 6:40 pm ET / 3:40 pm PT
Television: MLB.tv, MASN2 (Washington), FDSN (Miami)
Jake Irvin of the Nationals is on my short list of worst starting pitchers in baseball. He has a 5.71 ERA, which balloons up to 6.19 when he pitches on the road. Current form is even worse as Irvin has a 10.80 ERA during his past three starts. He ranks in the bottom-10 in just about all of the metric categories including, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard hit rate.
Irvin can expect no help from a Washington bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors.
The Nationals, though, are swinging hot bats averaging 7.5 runs in their last six games. They face Eury Perez, who is on the comeback trail after missing all of last season. After a few promising starts, Perez has shown serious regression with an 8.53 ERA in his last six starts.
Perez just faced the Nationals a week ago and gave up seven earned runs in four innings. Perez has surrendered two or more homers in four of his past six starts.
So I don’t find it too much to ask of each of these teams to score four runs apiece, which would get this Over the total.
Pick: Nationals-Marlins Over 8.5 -115
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