Tom here—and if you’ve been riding with me, you already know what time it is. Tonight isn’t just the first slate of the season. It’s the first payday.. The books? Still asleep. The sharps? Still calibrating. We are not. Clock’s ticking. Tip off waits for no one. Let's cash some tickets!
Wry or Die Free Play
Game:
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders
Date:
Sunday, Nov 2, 2025
Time:
04:05 pm EST
Television:
Fox
Odds:
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (+100)
Las Vegas Raiders +3 (-120)
Why Fade Jacksonville as a Road Chalk
Historical Post Bye Road Struggles: The Jaguars are 0-3 SU/ATS in their last three road games immediately following a bye week. Small sample, but the trend is stark.
Key Injury Blow: WR Travis Hunter was placed on Injured Reserve Friday. Jacksonville’s passing attack now hinges on Brian Thomas Jr., who has flashed but averages <50 yards over his last four games.
Trevor Lawrence Underwhelms: Lawrence ranks 25th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate since Week 6. Without Hunter’s vertical threat, defenses can crowd the line and dare Lawrence to beat them deep—he hasn’t.
Run Game Dependency: Expect a heavy dose of Travis Etienne Sr, but the Raiders rank 8th in EPA allowed to RBs and have faced the 3rd most rush attempts. Ground and pound plays into Vegas hands at home.
Raiders Case as a Live Home Dog
Shutout Rebound Angle: Teams coming off a shutout are 34-19-2 ATS (64%) since 2020, including 9-3 ATS when also on extra rest. Vegas was blanked 31-0 by Kansas City but now gets 14 days to recalibrate.
Coaching Edge Post Bye: While the Raiders are 1-4 SU after byes under recent regimes, new HC Pete Carroll owns a 12-5 ATS ledger in post bye spots across his career—teams are hyper prepared.
Defensive Identity Intact: Las Vegas still fields a top 10 unit in defensive DVOA despite offensive woes. Maxx Crosby & Co. feast on one dimensional attacks; Jacksonville projects <60% pass rate here.
Bottom Line
Jacksonville has no business laying points on the road with a decimated skill group and a quarterback in regression. The Raiders offense is ugly, but they don’t need 20 points to cover—give them the home punt and the post shutout bounce.
Play: Raiders +2.5 (or better)
Let’s cash some tickets!
Play: (468) Las Vegas Raiders +3 (-120)
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