NCAAF – FREE PLAY: Tennessee (417) vs. Alabama (418)

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As of this morning and posting this Free Play, the late money is coming in all on the underdog. I am here to tell you, I get it. I understand why the general public is coming in on Tennessee here. I mean this team, just like the home team Alabama Crimson Tide, possesses a 5-1 record. Their only loss this season was a little more than a month ago at home at the hands of Georgia, 44-41. Since then, they’ve rattled off three straight up victories. But, the oddsmakers are overvaluing the Volunteers as they have failed to cover four straight. The last time they covered a game was on September 6 against East Tennessee State. When their schedule got tougher, they stopped covering games, my friends. Put a pin in that will come back around to it. Since their season opening loss at the hands of Florida State on the road, Alabama has won five straight victories, either covering all five, or going 4-0-1 ATS (depending on the number you got). When their schedule got tougher, they stepped up. If you look back at the history between these two teams, you will see the Crimson Tide has dominated the Volunteers taking eight of the last 10 meetings going back 10 years. They have covered six of those games. Granted they lost two of their last three, but both of those games were played on the road. I can’t even remember the last time the Volunteers took down the crimson Tide as a visitor. Let’s face it, Alabama is a monster team, especially when they’re playing at home. Looking at the upcoming schedule following this week, Tennessee has Kentucky on the road, Oklahoma, and New Mexico State (following a bye week) at home, Florida on the road, then finish up the regular season at home against Vanderbilt. Alabama next week plays South Carolina on the road, has a week off before they play LSU at home, and then Oklahoma at home, a throwaway game against Eastern Illinois University also at home, then finishes up their regular season on the road at Auburn. After this week, this team can certainly run the gauntlet and finish the regular season with just one loss. That would put them in an ideal spot for the CFP. statistically speaking, both teams have powerful offenses with Tennessee scoring a bit more. The problem is defense. The Volunteers defense possesses some of the worst numbers for a team this good. They allow 29.3 points per game, have only grabbed four takeaways, rank 112nd against the pass, and 56th against the rush. I think they’re going to have a lot of problems trying to contain the passing attack… I should say the 17th ranked passing attack of the Alabama Crimson Tide offense. On the flipside, the ‘Bama defense is a monster squad. They leave a bit to be desired against the run. But they are one of the best in the nation against the pass, only allow 17.3 points per game, and have grabbed six takeaways already. The Crimson Tide is a smart, well coached team, and they know that opening up their regular season with a loss hurt them and they cannot ease up at all especially in this matchup. While I think Tennessee is a good team, I just don’t think they have the depth or the talent defensively to keep pace here. Take the Crimson Tide. Thank you.