Featured Game: Toledo Rockets (-14/48.5) vs. Western Michigan Broncos

Time: 3:30 pm ET / 12:30 pm PT

Television: ESPN+ / ESPN Select/Unlimited

The Toledo Rockets are back in the pointspread role that I have bet against them successfully many times in over the years and that is as double digit favorites in particular on the road. Jason Candle has a disastrous track record laying points as Toledo is 0-4 ATS in their last four tries as road favorites losing three of those games outright. Toledo has looked very impressive in victories against Western Kentucky and Morgan State but in their only road game at Kentucky, QB Tucker Gleason and the offense struggled to move the football and put up points. Western Michigan is the inferior team but the Broncos have faced a tough opening schedule facing Michigan State, Illinois and a vastly improved North Texas squad. WMU is a run heavy team that will look to truncate the game with long drives and fewer possessions and the Rockets only have middling numbers with their run defense ranking 50th in rushing yards allowed per game. This spot feels similar to Buffalo vs. Kent State last week where Buffalo walked in as the superior team but needed to battle just to survive and win that game as 21 point road favorites. Western Michigan lost 33-30 in OT against North Texas two weeks ago in their lone previous home game cashing as 11.5 point underdogs. Look for another home dog ticket casher with Western Michigan here against an untrustworthy road favorite with a bad track record in this role.

Pick: Western Michigan +14 -110

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